Electrical Power Development

The street lighting project is intended to provide adequate public lighting to industrial/residential areas, commercial centers, roads, railway and public transport facilities and also to create a conducive environment for a 24-hour economy envisaged under Vision 2030. As of 31st October 2022, 183,283 lanterns had been installed.

The study began in September 2022 with Economic Consulting Associates LTD as the consultant. This study is being undertaken with the aim of assisting in addressing the following in the grid:

1. Frequency regulation reserves especially due to the relatively large proportion of variable renewable energy in the system
2. Voltage instability in the system in some parts of the country
3. Management of geothermal resources through reduction of steam venting
4. Increased penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) generation;
5. Provide system security by supplying energy during the shortage in electricity generation
6. Enable transmission and distribution replacement and deferrals as they reduce loading on the lines during peak times

As of 31st December 2022 the consultant had provided the inception report, Legal and Regulation Review, and Utility-Scale Storage Review reports.

This study is being implemented by the state department for Energy through the Feedback Infra Private LTD consultants. The contract was signed on 26th January, 2022 and the consultant is expected to finish the study by 30th June 2023 as per latest contract extension.

The objective of the consultancy is to develop comprehensive and updated technical standards and specifications for design and construction of the distribution system. As at 31st December 2022 the consultant had provided the inception and interim reports. Currently the consultant is undertaking the final report draft preparation and capacity building.

The current LCPDP as at June 2022 breakdowns the power plan and projections from 2022 to 2041. The primary objective of LCPDP is to develop a capacity expansion plan to meet the projected demand at minimal cost.

The LCPDP also apprises stakeholders and investors of the Government’s intents for the power sector over the planning period, guided by the prevailing policy framework and supporting legislation.

The plan contains four main outputs from the studies carried out: the electricity demand forecast, the recommended generation expansion plan, a tariff evolution trend for the medium term period of the plan and the recommended transmission expansion plan. National Energy planning is anchored in the Energy Act No 1 of 2019 with the mandate given to the Cabinet Secretary in charge of Energy. Section 4-8 of the Act provides for development and updating of the National Energy Policy every five years and regular development and review of the Integrated National Energy Plan (INEP) consisting of coal, renewable energy and electricity, in addition to County Energy Plans. The LCPDP has the following critical plans:

i.  Generation expansion plan:
Under the plan, the effective interconnected capacity is projected to rise from 2,919 MW in 2021 to 8,870 MW in 2041

ii.  Transmission Plan:
In the medium term, the plan projects the network to expand by 6,218km in circuit length and 12,089MVA in substation capacity. Long term projections indicate an increase of 12,672kms in circuit length of transmission lines and 18,497MVA substation capacity.

iii.  The Impact of the Expansion Plan on Climate Change
The plan shows very limited utilization of fossil fuels in the medium term and long-term. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are forecasted at below 10 MtCO2e from 2022 due to the planned phasing out of medium speed diesel plants and promotion of renewable energy. Increased integration of renewable energy sources such as hydropower, wind, solar PV, and geothermal contributes to the global goal of “towards net zero emissions”. This also aligns to the national target, to abate GHG emissions by 32% by 2030 relative to the Business
As Usual (BAU) scenario of 143 MtCO2e as contained in the updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). The recommended plan offers a good opportunity for climate change mitigation with emissions of 0.03MtCO2e (Reference demand scenario) compared to 41MtCO2e projected by 2030 from electricity generation under the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP).

iv. Projected Electricity Tariffs
The plan projects the power generation cost per kWh and retail tariff.

v.    Kenya National Electrification Strategy (KNES)

The Kenya National Electrification Strategy (KNES) developed in 2018 is the roadmap to achieving universal access to electricity as a key plank of powering the Country’s development agenda.
KNES is anchored on six (6) themes that taken together will define the means and process by which electrification expansion can be better organized and implemented during the period of rapid investment and accelerated implementation. The themes are:

• Definition of service levels for off-grid projects – establishing the definition of an electrified household or small business
• Strategies for identifying projects and prioritizing them for implementation
• Definition of technical aspects of future electrification investments including modification of design & construction standards and quality of service standards.
• Definition of the roles and responsibilities of the key participating institutions.
• Definition of procurement arrangements to optimize future electrification program results.
• Evaluation of financial requirements and how these can be met by local and external sources of program financing

This report provides the respective Long Term Plan (LTP) for the period 2015 (base year) to 2035. This LTP is the identification and analysis of suitable expansion paths of the Kenyan power system for that period, complying with the defined planning criteria and framework. This encompasses:

1. Analysis of past electricity demand and development of future demand scenarios,
2. Analysis of suitable expansion candidate fuels and technologies, their optimal sizing, siting and scheduling,
3. Modeling of their expected contribution to the future power generation and the probable operation of the generation system,
4. Modeling of the transmission grid for the year 2030 and the analysis of its performance under several criteria,
5. Investment analysis summarizing financial implications of the expansion plans on the future investment needs and their expected schedule.